The recent revelations of a International Energy Administration whistleblower that the IEA might have misshaped essential oil projections under intense U.S. pressure is, if real (and whistleblowers seldom come forward to advance their careers), a slow-burning thermonuclear surge on future worldwide oil production. The Bush administration's actions in pressuring the IEA to underplay the rate of decline from existing oil fields while overplaying the possibilities of finding brand-new reserves have the possible to throw governments' long-term preparation into turmoil.

Whatever the truth, increasing long term international needs seem particular to overtake production in the next decade, especially given the high and rising costs of developing brand-new super-fields such as Kazakhstan's overseas Kashagan and Brazil's southern Atlantic Jupiter and Carioca fields, which will need billions in financial investments before their first barrels of oil are produced.

In such a circumstance, ingredients and substitutes such as biofuels will play an ever-increasing role by extending beleaguered production quotas. As market forces and increasing prices drive this innovation to the leading edge, among the wealthiest possible production areas has been totally overlooked by investors up to now - Central Asia. Formerly the USSR's cotton "plantation," the region is poised to end up being a significant gamer in the production of biofuels if adequate foreign investment can be procured. Unlike Brazil, where biofuel is made largely from sugarcane, or the United States, where it is mainly distilled from corn, Central Asia's ace resource is a native plant, Camelina sativa.

Of the previous Soviet Caucasian and Central Asian republics, those clustered around the coasts of the Caspian, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have seen their economies boom since of record-high energy rates, while Turkmenistan is waiting in the wings as an increasing producer of natural gas.

Farther to the east, in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, geographical isolation and fairly little hydrocarbon resources relative to their Western Caspian neighbors have largely hindered their capability to capitalize increasing international energy needs already. Mountainous Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan remain largely dependent for their electrical requirements on their Soviet-era hydroelectric infrastructure, however their increased need to produce winter electrical power has actually caused autumnal and winter season water discharges, in turn seriously impacting the farming of their western downstream next-door neighbors Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.

What these 3 downstream countries do have nevertheless is a Soviet-era legacy of agricultural production, which in Uzbekistan's and Turkmenistan case was largely directed towards cotton production, while Kazakhstan, starting in the 1950s with Khrushchev's "Virgin Lands" programs, has ended up being a major producer of wheat. Based upon my conversations with Central Asian government officials, given the thirsty needs of cotton monoculture, foreign proposals to diversify agrarian production towards biofuel would have fantastic appeal in Astana, Ashgabat and Tashkent and to a lesser degree Astana for those sturdy financiers going to bet on the future, specifically as a plant indigenous to the region has actually already proven itself in trials.

Known in the West as false flax, wild flax, linseed dodder, German sesame and Siberian oilseed, camelina is attracting increased clinical interest for its oleaginous qualities, with a number of European and American companies already investigating how to produce it in industrial amounts for biofuel. In January Japan Airlines undertook a historic test flight using camelina-based bio-jet fuel, ending up being the very first Asian provider to explore flying on fuel stemmed from sustainable feedstocks during a one-hour demonstration flight from Tokyo's Haneda Airport. The test was the conclusion of a 12-month evaluation of camelina's operational efficiency ability and prospective business viability.

As an alternative energy source, camelina has much to recommend it. It has a high oil material low in hydrogenated fat. In contrast to Central Asia's thirsty "king cotton," camelina is drought-resistant and unsusceptible to spring freezing, requires less fertilizer and herbicides, and can be used as a rotation crop with wheat, which would make it of particular interest in Kazakhstan, now Central Asia's major wheat exporter. Another reward of camelina is its tolerance of poorer, less fertile conditions. An acre planted with camelina can produce up to 100 gallons of oil and when planted in rotation with wheat, camelina can increase wheat production by 15 percent. A lot (1000 kg) of camelina will include 350 kg of oil, of which pushing can extract 250 kg. Nothing in camelina production is wasted as after processing, the plant's particles can be utilized for animals silage. Camelina silage has an especially attractive concentration of omega-3 fats that make it a particularly great animals feed candidate that is just now acquiring acknowledgment in the U.S. and Canada. Camelina is quick growing, produces its own natural herbicide (allelopathy) and completes well versus weeds when an even crop is established. According to Britain's Bangor University's Centre for Alternative Land Use, "Camelina might be a perfect low-input crop appropriate for bio-diesel production, due to its lower requirements for nitrogen fertilizer than oilseed rape."

Camelina, a branch of the mustard family, is indigenous to both Europe and Central Asia and hardly a new crop on the scene: historical proof indicates it has been cultivated in Europe for at least 3 millennia to produce both veggie oil and animal fodder.

Field trials of production in Montana, presently the center of U.S. camelina research, revealed a broad variety of results of 330-1,700 pounds of seed per acre, with oil material differing in between 29 and 40%. Optimal seeding rates have been identified to be in the 6-8 pound per acre variety, as the seeds' little size of 400,000 seeds per lb can create issues in germination to accomplish an optimal plant density of around 9 plants per sq. ft.

Camelina's potential could allow Uzbekistan to start breaking out of its most dolorous tradition, the imposition of a cotton monoculture that has warped the country's attempts at agrarian reform because accomplishing independence in 1991. Beginning in the late 19th century, the Russian government identified that Central Asia would become its cotton plantation to feed Moscow's growing fabric market. The procedure was sped up under the Soviets. While Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan were likewise bought by Moscow to plant cotton, Uzbekistan in particular was singled out to produce "white gold."

By the end of the 1930s the Soviet Union had actually ended up being self-sufficient in cotton; 5 decades later it had actually become a significant exporter of cotton, producing more than one-fifth of the world's production, focused in Uzbekistan, which produced 70 percent of the Soviet Union's output.

Try as it might to diversify, in the lack of alternatives Tashkent remains wedded to cotton, producing about 3.6 million lots each year, which brings in more than $1 billion while making up roughly 60 percent of the nation's hard currency income.

Beginning in the mid-1960s the Soviet federal government's regulations for Central Asian cotton production largely bankrupted the region's scarcest resource, water. Cotton uses about 3.5 acre feet of water per acre of plants, leading Soviet coordinators to divert ever-increasing volumes of water from the area's 2 rivers, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya, into ineffective irrigation canals, resulting in the significant shrinking of the rivers' final destination, the Aral Sea. The Aral, as soon as the world's fourth-largest inland sea with an area of 26,000 square miles, has actually shrunk to one-quarter its original size in among the 20th century's worst ecological catastrophes.

And now, the dollars and cents. Dr. Bill Schillinger at Washington State University just recently described camelina's organization design to Capital Press as: "At 1,400 pounds per acre at 16 cents a pound, camelina would bring in $224 per acre; 28-bushel white wheat at $8.23 per bushel would gather $230."

Central Asia has the land, the farms, the watering infrastructure and a modest wage scale in comparison to America or Europe - all that's missing is the foreign financial investment. U.S. financiers have the money and access to the know-how of America's land grant universities. What is particular is that biofuel's market share will grow with time; less certain is who will reap the advantages of developing it as a practical issue in Central Asia.

If the recent past is anything to go by it is not likely to be American and European investors, focused as they are on Caspian oil and gas.

But while the Japanese flight experiments indicate Asian interest, American financiers have the scholastic proficiency, if they want to follow the Silk Road into developing a new market. Certainly anything that minimizes water usage and pesticides, diversifies crop production and improves the great deal of their agrarian population will receive most cautious consideration from Central Asia's federal governments, and farming and vegetable oil processing plants are not only much cheaper than pipelines, they can be built more quickly.

And jatropha curcas's biofuel capacity? Another story for another time.